Background Neurobiological measures have been associated with delinquent behaviour, but little is known about the predictive power of these measures for criminal recidivism and whether they have incremental value over and above demographic and behavioural measures. This study examined whether selected measures of autonomic functioning, functional neuroimaging and electroencephalography predict overall and serious recidivism in a sample of 127 delinquent young adults.
Methods We assessed demographics; education and intelligence; previous delinquency and drug use; behavioural traits, including aggression and psychopathy; and neurobiological measures, including heart rate, heart rate variability, functional brain activity during an inhibition task and 2 electroencephalographic measures of error-processing. We tested longitudinal associations with recidivism using Cox proportional hazard models and predictive power using C-indexes.
Results Past offences, long-term cannabis use and reactive aggression were strongly associated with recidivism, as were resting heart rate and error-processing. In the predictive model, demographics, past delinquency, drug use and behavioural traits had moderate predictive power for overall and for serious recidivism (C-index over 30 months [fraction of pairs in the data, where the higher observed survival time was correctly predicted]: C30 = 0.68 and 0.75, respectively). Neurobiological measures significantly improved predictive power (C30 = 0.72 for overall recidivism and C30 = 0.80 for serious recidivism).
Limitations Findings cannot be generalized to females, and follow-up was limited to 4 years.
Conclusion Demographic and behavioural characteristics longitudinally predicted recidivism in delinquent male young adults, and neurobiological measures improved the models. This led to good predictive function, particularly for serious recidivism. Importantly, the most feasible measures (autonomic functioning and electroencephalography) proved to be useful neurobiological predictors.

BackgroundAberrant functioning of the autonomic nervous system (ANS) is an important factor in the occurrence of antisocial behavior. Baseline autonomic functioning and the responsivity of the ANS have been related to psychopathic traits and aggression. Here we investigated whether a naturalistic sample of male multi-problem young adults (age 18–27) present with similar autonomic deficits in relation to their psychopathy and aggression as previous studies observed in clinical samples.MethodsIn a sample of 112 multi-problem young adults, baseline autonomic functioning and autonomic responsivity to emotional stimuli were assessed through four physiological measures: heart rate, respiratory sinus arrhythmia, pre-ejection period, and skin conductance. 27 control participants were included primarily to assess whether the task worked appropriately. Participants watched a neutral 5 min video to assess baseline autonomic functioning and watched two sad clips to assess autonomic reactivity to sadness. We investigated the association between autonomic functioning and self-reported psychopathic traits and aggression within the multi-problem group.ResultsWe found no significant associations between autonomic functioning and psychopathy and aggression.ConclusionThese null-findings highlight the importance of research in naturalistic samples in addition to research in clinical and general populations samples and underscore the complexity of translating research findings into practical and clinical implications.